209 patterns retail investors miss.
Contra is a structured framework that names and tracks the recurring patterns that destroy retail-investor returns — and the rarer patterns that compound them.
Hyper-Thematic Blow-Off Top
“What is a blow-off top in a stock?”
Inventory Trap
“What does it mean when a company's inventory is rising faster than sales?”
Format Substitution Erosion
“What is format substitution in stock investing?”
Corporate Cardinal Sin
“What is the corporate cardinal sin in business?”
Crisis-Composite Saturation
“What happens when a stock has multiple problems at once?”
Buffett Management Composite
“What does Warren Buffett look for in management?”
Founder Liquidity Event
“What does it mean when a founder is selling stock?”
Spin-Off / M&A Mispricing
“Are spin-off stocks good investments?”
Insider Selling Cluster
“What does insider cluster selling mean?”
Pricing-Power Without Volume Loss
“What does pricing power without volume loss mean for a stock?”
SBC Dilution Silent Erosion
“What is stock-based compensation dilution?”
Consultant Trap
“What is the consultant trap in corporate strategy?”
Insider Buying Cluster
“What does insider buying mean for a stock?”
Working Capital Quality Composite
“What is working capital quality in stock investing?”
Transition Year CEO + Capex Reset
“What happens when a new CEO raises capex on a transition year?”
Greater China Volume Decline
“How does China exposure affect a stock?”
Tax Policy Pendulum
“How does corporate tax policy affect stocks?”
Customer Friction Substitution
“How do competitors with easier products take customers?”
Discipline-by-Failure Sub-Pattern
“Can a failed deal be good for a company's stock?”
Founder Liquidity Event (M&A Exit)
“When a founder sells their company is it bad for shareholders?”
Capital Productivity Trajectory
“What is capital productivity in stock investing?”
Director Independence Erosion
“How important is board director independence for a stock?”
Customer Switching Cost Erosion
“How do customer switching costs affect a stock?”
Dividend Coverage Erosion
“When is a dividend in danger of being cut?”
Executive Lifeboat Pattern
“What does it mean when a retired CEO returns to a company?”
Bag Holder Psychology Cluster
“What is a bag holder in stock investing?”
Compounder Composite (5-firing)
“What is a compounder stock?”
Debt-Fueled Dividend Trap
“When is a high-dividend stock a trap?”
Post-M&A 24-Month Window
“What happens to a stock after a major acquisition?”
Captured Board
“What is a captured board?”
Margin Bleed Trap
“When should I worry about a company's shrinking gross margin?”
Regulatory Pendulum
“What happens to a stock when the regulator is targeting the company?”
Serial-Failure Operator Pattern
“What does it mean when a founder's previous companies failed?”
The Cultist Pattern
“When does loyalty to a CEO become a stock-investing problem?”
Capex Outrunning FCF
“What does it mean when capex exceeds free cash flow?”
Paid Promotion Pump
“How do I tell if a stock is being pumped?”
Tech Platform Moat / CAC Inflation
“When does a SaaS company stop being a good investment?”
Capital Allocation Discipline
“What is capital allocation in stock investing?”
Sequential Portfolio Surgery
“What is portfolio surgery in corporate strategy?”
P/E Lockdown Override
“Why won't a stock's P/E expand even when earnings grow?”
Customer Concentration Risk
“What is customer concentration risk?”
Pricing-Power Cash Compounder
“What is pricing power in stock investing?”
Index-Inclusion Mechanical Flow
“What happens to a stock when it's added to the S&P 500?”
Rebalance Clearing Window
“What happens at the end of a month for stocks?”
Retail Option Buyer Loss
“Why do retail traders lose money on options?”
0DTE Loss Pattern
“What are 0DTE options and why do they matter?”
Network Effects Pattern
“What are network effects in stock investing?”
Customer Acquisition Cost Inflation
“What does it mean when customer acquisition cost is rising?”
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